Pair #1864

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-RMCI

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 35114

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMCI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 44389

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:39:11Z

Reasoning: Winning a major implies a top-10 finish in that event, but the top-10-in-all-4 market requires all four, so a single win doesn't guarantee all four top-10s. Conversely, finishing top 10 in all four does not require winning any of them.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -88.31% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3900
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -92.52% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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