Pair #1863

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-RMCI

Will Rory McIlroy win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 25266992

YES ask: 0.3600
NO ask: 0.6500
Last: 0.3600

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Rules

If Rory McIlroy wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMCI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 44389

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:39:11Z

Reasoning: If McIlroy wins the Masters, he has won one of the four majors in 2026, so the major win market must resolve Yes. The reverse does not hold — he could win a different major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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