Pair #1862

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-RMCI

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 35114

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-RMCI

Will Rory McIlroy win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 25266992

YES ask: 0.3600
NO ask: 0.6500
Last: 0.3600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:38:50Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters guarantees a top-10 at the Masters but not top 10 in all four majors. The all-4 top-10 market requires McIlroy to finish top 10 in every major, which winning one does not ensure. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -69.53% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2000
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -73.74% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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