Pair #1860

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-CMOR

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 5470

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CMOR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17854

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:38:50Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require winning any of them, and winning a major does not guarantee top 10 in all four. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -39.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -44.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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