Pair #1853

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-HMAT

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2499

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-HMAT

Will Hideki Matsuyama win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 4591651

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:38:50Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters guarantees a top-10 at the Masters, but the all-4-majors top-10 market requires top 10 in all four. Winning the Masters alone does not ensure top 10 in the other three majors. The reverse also does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 6.18% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9910
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: +1.97% PROFITABLE

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