Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-SSCH
All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?
Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 39655
YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Scottie Scheffler finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-MAST26-SSCH
Will Scottie Scheffler win the Masters Tournament?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 26409687
YES ask: 0.0820
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0820
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Scottie Scheffler wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:38:30Z
Reasoning: Winning the Masters means a top 10 finish at the Masters, but Event B requires top 10 in ALL 4 majors. Winning the Masters alone does not guarantee top 10 in the other three majors. And finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require winning the Masters. No logical implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
485.76%
PROFITABLE
Cost:
$0.8120
Days to maturity:
43
Hurdle yield:
4.19%
Excess yield:
+481.57%
PROFITABLE