Pair #1850

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-SSCH

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 39655

YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 26409687

YES ask: 0.0820
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0820

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:38:30Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters means a top 10 finish at the Masters, but Event B requires top 10 in ALL 4 majors. Winning the Masters alone does not guarantee top 10 in the other three majors. And finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require winning the Masters. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 485.76% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.8120
Days to maturity: 43
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: +481.57% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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