Pair #1847

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-DWAL

Valspar Championship: Will Danny Walker make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Danny Walker
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 973

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Danny Walker makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-DWAL

Valspar Championship: Will Danny Walker finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Danny Walker
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 15515

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Danny Walker finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:38:30Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not necessitate a top 10 finish, and finishing top 10 implies making the cut but the question is whether top 10 → make cut (yes logically), however the antecedent here would be top 10. Top 10 does imply making the cut, but that implication is ticker_b → ticker_a, and making the cut does not imply top 10. So: KXPGATOP10 → KXPGAMAKECUT, but that pair direction isn't cleanly captured here — actually it is: antecedent is top10, consequent is makecut.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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