Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-26-DET
Will Detroit Red Wings win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: Detroit Red Wings
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 518404
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLEAST-26-DET
Eastern Conference Finals Winner?
Series: KXNHLEAST
Entity: Detroit Red Wings
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 100368
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Detroit Red Wings wins the Eastern Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:03:07Z
Reasoning: To win the Stanley Cup Finals, Detroit must have won the Eastern Conference Finals. The reverse is not true.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-11.06%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0100
Days to maturity:
31
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
-15.27%
BELOW HURDLE