Pair #1837

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-ASVE

Will Adam Svensson lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Adam Svensson
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1037

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adam Svensson is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-ASVE

Valspar Championship: Will Adam Svensson finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Adam Svensson
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1000

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adam Svensson finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:38:07Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 finish (a player could fade over subsequent rounds and miss the cut or finish outside top 10), and finishing top 10 does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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