Pair #1829

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-KREI

Will Kristoffer Reitan lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Kristoffer Reitan
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 20148

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Kristoffer Reitan is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-KREI

Will Kristoffer Reitan win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Kristoffer Reitan
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 2424815

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Kristoffer Reitan wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:38:07Z

Reasoning: These are entirely different tournaments (Valspar Championship vs. Masters Tournament). No logical relationship between leading R1 at Valspar and winning the Masters.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9910
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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