Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-KREI
Will Kristoffer Reitan lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Kristoffer Reitan
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 20148
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Kristoffer Reitan is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-MAST26-KREI
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the Masters Tournament?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Kristoffer Reitan
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 2424815
YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Kristoffer Reitan wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:38:07Z
Reasoning: These are entirely different tournaments (Valspar Championship vs. Masters Tournament). No logical relationship between leading R1 at Valspar and winning the Masters.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.9910
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A