Pair #1822

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-GWOO

Valspar Championship: Will Gary Woodland make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Gary Woodland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1525

YES ask: 0.8200
NO ask: 0.2800
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Gary Woodland makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-GWOO

Valspar Championship: Will Gary Woodland finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Gary Woodland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4465

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Gary Woodland finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:37:50Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top-10 finish (could finish 11th or lower), and finishing top 10 does not require explicit reference to making the cut (though it is implied). Actually, finishing top 10 does imply making the cut, but the rules here define top-10 finish independently. Still, logically a top-10 finisher must have made the cut, but making the cut does not imply top 10. So top-10 implies make-cut but not vice versa — however the stronger implication direction: KXPGATOP10 → KXPGAMAKECUT is the correct one. Setting accordingly.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.5200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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