Pair #1818

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-GWOO

Will Gary Woodland lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Gary Woodland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 242

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Gary Woodland is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-GWOO

Valspar Championship: Will Gary Woodland make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Gary Woodland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1525

YES ask: 0.8200
NO ask: 0.2800
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Gary Woodland makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:37:50Z

Reasoning: If Gary Woodland leads after Round 1, he is still in the tournament and will play Round 2, meaning he necessarily makes the cut (the cut is made after Round 2, and a Round 1 leader participates in Round 2). The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not imply leading after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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