Pair #1807

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-ABHA

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2896

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-ABHA

Will Akshay Bhatia win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 7618694

YES ask: 0.0060
NO ask: 0.9950
Last: 0.0060

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:37:27Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters guarantees a top-10 finish in that major, but B requires top-10 finishes in ALL 4 majors. Winning the Masters says nothing about the other three majors. And B resolving YES does not imply A, since top-10 is not the same as winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -3.89% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0060
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -8.10% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue