Pair #18

Antecedent (implies)

KXFOMEN-26-DJO

Will Novak Djokovic win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Novak Djokovic
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 13593

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Novak Djokovic wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (implied)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-NDJO

Will Novak Djokovic win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Novak Djokovic
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 18494

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Novak Djokovic wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-16T22:50:46Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open IS winning a Grand Slam, so KXFOMEN-26-DJO YES necessarily means KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-NDJO YES. The reverse does not hold — Djokovic could win a different Grand Slam without winning the French Open.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -25.21% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: 85
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -29.43% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-16T23:07:19Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue