Pair #1798

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-DBRO

Valspar Championship: Will Daniel Brown make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Daniel Brown
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 499

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.6400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Daniel Brown makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-DBRO

Valspar Championship: Will Daniel Brown finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Daniel Brown
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 251

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Daniel Brown finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:37:07Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top-10 finish (could finish 11th or lower), and finishing top 10 implies making the cut but that direction is B implies A, not A implies B. Actually top-10 does imply making the cut, but the rules ask us to identify the antecedent. Top-10 finish necessitates making the cut, so B implies A.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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