Pair #1782

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXDPWORLDTOUR-HACPBM26-JCAM

Will Jorge Campillo win the Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO?

Series: KXDPWORLDTOUR
Entity: Jorge Campillo
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 114183

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.7700
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jorge Campillo wins the Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-HACPBM26-JCAM

Will Jorge Campillo lead at the end of Round 1 in the Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO?

Series: KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD
Entity: Jorge Campillo
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 240

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jorge Campillo is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:36:50Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not necessitate winning the tournament, and winning the tournament does not require leading after Round 1. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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