Pair #1780

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXDPWORLDTOUR-HACPBM26-AAYO

Will Angel Ayora Fanegas win the Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO?

Series: KXDPWORLDTOUR
Entity: Angel Ayora Fanegas
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 41135

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

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Rules

If Angel Ayora Fanegas wins the Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-HACPBM26-AAYO

Will Angel Ayora Fanegas lead at the end of Round 1 in the Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO?

Series: KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD
Entity: Angel Ayora Fanegas
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1207

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Angel Ayora Fanegas is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:36:50Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not necessitate winning the tournament, and winning the tournament does not require leading after Round 1. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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