Pair #1778

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXDPWORLDTOUR-HACPBM26-NKIM

Will Nathan Kimsey win the Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO?

Series: KXDPWORLDTOUR
Entity: Nathan Kimsey
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5451

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Nathan Kimsey wins the Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-HACPBM26-NKIM

Will Nathan Kimsey lead at the end of Round 1 in the Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO?

Series: KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD
Entity: Nathan Kimsey
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 245

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Nathan Kimsey is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:36:33Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not necessitate winning the tournament, and winning the tournament does not require leading after Round 1. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $2.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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