Pair #1773

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXDPWORLDTOUR-HACPBM26-SCRO

Will Sean Crocker win the Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO?

Series: KXDPWORLDTOUR
Entity: Sean Crocker
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4263

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sean Crocker wins the Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-HACPBM26-SCRO

Will Sean Crocker lead at the end of Round 1 in the Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO?

Series: KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD
Entity: Sean Crocker
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1626

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sean Crocker is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:36:33Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not necessitate winning the tournament — a player can lead R1 and still lose overall. Winning the tournament does not require leading after R1 either. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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