Pair #1769

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-MAND

Will Mirra Andreeva win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Mirra Andreeva
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2871

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mirra Andreeva wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR19ANDKES-AND

Will Mirra Andreeva win the Andreeva vs Kessler : Round Of 64 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Mirra Andreeva
Expiration: 2026-03-19T17:00:00Z
Volume: 1500

YES ask: 0.8000
NO ask: 0.2200
Last: 0.8000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mirra Andreeva wins the Andreeva vs Kessler professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:36:33Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam has no logical connection to winning a Miami Open Round of 64 match. These are separate tournaments and neither result necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -59.72% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7000
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -64.00% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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