Pair #1763

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-ISWI

Will Iga Swiatek win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Iga Swiatek
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6357

YES ask: 0.5700
NO ask: 0.5500
Last: 0.4500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Iga Swiatek wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR19LINSWI-SWI

Will Iga Swiatek win the Linette vs Swiatek : Round Of 64 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Iga Swiatek
Expiration: 2026-03-19T17:00:00Z
Volume: 6878

YES ask: 0.9400
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Iga Swiatek wins the Linette vs Swiatek professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:36:13Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam is entirely independent of winning a Miami Open R64 match. These are separate tournaments with no logical dependency in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -49.51% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4900
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -53.79% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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