Pair #1761

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXFOWOMEN-26-SWI

Will Iga Swiatek win the French Open?

Series: KXFOWOMEN
Entity: Iga Swiatek
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 193270

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.7500
Last: 0.2700

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Rules

If Iga Swiatek wins the 2026 Women's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR19LINSWI-SWI

Will Iga Swiatek win the Linette vs Swiatek : Round Of 64 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Iga Swiatek
Expiration: 2026-03-19T17:00:00Z
Volume: 6878

YES ask: 0.9400
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Iga Swiatek wins the Linette vs Swiatek professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:36:13Z

Reasoning: The French Open and the WTA Miami Open are entirely separate tournaments. Winning the French Open does not require winning a Miami R64 match, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6900
Days to maturity: 9
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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