Pair #176

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLWEST-26-CGY

Western Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLWEST
Entity: Calgary Flames
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 2250

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Calgary Flames wins the Western Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPLAYOFF-26-CGY

Will the Calgary Flames be one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers?

Series: KXNHLPLAYOFF
Entity: Calgary Flames
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 10632

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Calgary Flames are one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:03:07Z

Reasoning: Winning the Western Conference Finals means Calgary advanced through the playoffs, so they must have been a playoff qualifier. Making the playoffs does not imply winning the Conference Finals.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -11.06% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -15.27% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T09:31:25Z

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