Pair #1755

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-AANI

Will Amanda Anisimova win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Amanda Anisimova
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3051

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Amanda Anisimova wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR19ANITOM-ANI

Will Amanda Anisimova win the Anisimova vs Tomljanovic : Round Of 64 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Amanda Anisimova
Expiration: 2026-03-19T17:00:00Z
Volume: 3896

YES ask: 0.8600
NO ask: 0.1500
Last: 0.8600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Amanda Anisimova wins the Anisimova vs Tomljanovic professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:36:13Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam does not require winning the Miami Open R64 match (different tournaments). Winning the Miami R64 match does not imply winning a Grand Slam. These are entirely separate events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -61.44% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6900
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -65.75% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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