Antecedent (if this happens)
KXLIVR1LEAD-LIGSA26-DBUR
Will Dean Burmester lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf South Africa?
Series: KXLIVR1LEAD
Entity: Dean Burmester
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3479
YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Dean Burmester is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXLIVTOUR-LIGSA26-DBUR
Will Dean Burmester win the LIV Golf South Africa?
Series: KXLIVTOUR
Entity: Dean Burmester
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 185069
YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Dean Burmester wins the LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:35:56Z
Reasoning: Winning the tournament does not require leading after Round 1, and leading after R1 does not imply winning. No logical implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0600
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A