Pair #1750

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVR1LEAD-LIGSA26-DBUR

Will Dean Burmester lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVR1LEAD
Entity: Dean Burmester
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3479

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Dean Burmester is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXLIVTOP10-LIGSA26-DBUR

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Dean Burmester finish top 10?

Series: KXLIVTOP10
Entity: Dean Burmester
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2430

YES ask: 0.9400
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Dean Burmester finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:35:56Z

Reasoning: Top 10 finish and Round 1 lead are independent outcomes; neither logically necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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