Pair #1748

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVR1LEAD-LIGSA26-TDET

Will Thomas Detry lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVR1LEAD
Entity: Thomas Detry
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 981

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Thomas Detry is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXLIVTOUR-LIGSA26-TDET

Will Thomas Detry win the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVTOUR
Entity: Thomas Detry
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 149763

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Thomas Detry wins the LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:35:56Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament does not require leading after Round 1, and leading after R1 does not imply winning. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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