Pair #1744

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVR1LEAD-LIGSA26-MWOL

Will Matthew Wolff lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVR1LEAD
Entity: Matthew Wolff
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 405

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthew Wolff is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXLIVTOP10-LIGSA26-MWOL

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Matthew Wolff finish top 10?

Series: KXLIVTOP10
Entity: Matthew Wolff
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2102

YES ask: 0.8500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthew Wolff finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:35:56Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 overall does not require leading after Round 1, and leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 finish. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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