Pair #1743

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOUR-LIGSA26-MWOL

Will Matthew Wolff win the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVTOUR
Entity: Matthew Wolff
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 13168

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matthew Wolff wins the LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXLIVTOP10-LIGSA26-MWOL

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Matthew Wolff finish top 10?

Series: KXLIVTOP10
Entity: Matthew Wolff
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2102

YES ask: 0.8500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matthew Wolff finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:35:56Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is within the top 10. So if Wolff wins, he must finish top 10. The reverse does not hold: top 10 does not imply winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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