Pair #1741

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVR1LEAD-LIGSA26-JBAL

Will Jose Luis Ballester lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVR1LEAD
Entity: Jose Luis Ballester
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 518

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jose Luis Ballester is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXLIVTOP10-LIGSA26-JBAL

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Jose Luis Ballester finish top 10?

Series: KXLIVTOP10
Entity: Jose Luis Ballester
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1560

YES ask: 0.4600
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jose Luis Ballester finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:35:38Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 overall does not require leading after Round 1, and leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top-10 finish. No necessary implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue