Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-VHOV
Valspar Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 10 in the 1st round?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 1182
YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Viktor Hovland finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-VAC26-VHOV
Valspar Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7554
YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.3000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Viktor Hovland finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:35:38Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 overall does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1, and finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee a top-10 finish overall. No necessary implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.1000
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A