Pair #1739

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-VHOV

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4520

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-VHOV

Valspar Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 1182

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:35:38Z

Reasoning: Winning a major and finishing top 10 in Round 1 of the Valspar are completely unrelated events. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -26.41% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1800
Days to maturity: 197
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -30.72% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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