Pair #1738

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-VHOV

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4121

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

Rules

If Viktor Hovland wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-VHOV

Valspar Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7554

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.3000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Viktor Hovland finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:35:38Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 is entirely separate from finishing top 10 at the Valspar Championship. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -33.48% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2700
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -37.76% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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