Pair #1736

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-VHOV

Valspar Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7554

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.3000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-VHOV

Valspar Championship: Will Viktor Hovland make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 502

YES ask: 0.9100
NO ask: 0.1800
Last: 0.8300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:35:38Z

Reasoning: If Hovland finishes top 10 in the Valspar Championship, he must have made the cut (you cannot finish top 10 overall without surviving the cut). However, making the cut does not guarantee a top-10 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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