Pair #1734

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-VHOV

Valspar Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 1182

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VAC26-VHOV

Will Viktor Hovland lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1028

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:35:38Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1 (a player could have a poor R1 and great R2). Finishing top 10 in R1 does not imply leading after R2.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.8300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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