Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-VHOV
Valspar Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 10 in the 1st round?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 1182
YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Viktor Hovland finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR2LEAD-VAC26-VHOV
Will Viktor Hovland lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valspar Championship?
Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1028
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Viktor Hovland is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:35:38Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1 (a player could have a poor R1 and great R2). Finishing top 10 in R1 does not imply leading after R2.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.8300
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A