Pair #1733

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VAC26-VHOV

Will Viktor Hovland lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1028

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-VHOV

Valspar Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7554

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.3000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:35:38Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 does not guarantee a top-10 finish — a player can lead after R2 and fall outside the top 10 by the end of the tournament. Conversely, finishing top 10 does not require leading after R2.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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