Pair #1732

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-VHOV

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4456

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VAC26-VHOV

Will Viktor Hovland lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1028

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:35:38Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 of the Valspar Championship (not a major) does not imply winning a major, and winning a major does not imply leading at Valspar after R2. These are entirely independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -4.31% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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