Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-VHOV
Valspar Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 10 in the 1st round?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 1182
YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Viktor Hovland finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-VAC26-VHOV
Will Viktor Hovland win the Valspar Championship?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 605437
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Viktor Hovland wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:35:18Z
Reasoning: Winning the overall Valspar Championship does not require finishing top 10 in round 1 specifically — a player could start poorly and recover. And finishing top 10 in round 1 does not guarantee winning the tournament.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.8400
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A