Pair #173

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-CGY

Will Calgary Flames win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Calgary Flames
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 29520

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Calgary Flames win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPRES-26-CGY

Will the Calgary Flames win the Pro Hockey President's Trophy?

Series: KXNHLPRES
Entity: Calgary Flames
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 488

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Calgary Flames wins the Pro Hockey President's Trophy, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:02:51Z

Reasoning: A team can win the Stanley Cup without having the best regular season record (President's Trophy), and winning the President's Trophy does not guarantee winning the Cup. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -11.06% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -15.27% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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