Pair #1728

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-VHOV

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4121

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-VHOV

Will Viktor Hovland win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 605437

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:35:18Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major (it is not The Masters, PGA Championship, U.S. Open, or The Open Championship). Winning the Valspar does not imply winning a major, and winning a major does not imply winning the Valspar.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -1.68% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -5.96% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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