Pair #1726

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VAC26-VHOV

Will Viktor Hovland lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1028

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-VHOV

Will Viktor Hovland win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 605437

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:35:18Z

Reasoning: Winning the Valspar Championship does not require leading after Round 2 — a player can win a tournament without ever holding the outright lead at the R2 mark. And leading after R2 does not guarantee winning the tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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