Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR2LEAD-VAC26-VHOV
Will Viktor Hovland lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valspar Championship?
Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1028
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Viktor Hovland is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-VAC26-VHOV
Will Viktor Hovland win the Valspar Championship?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 605437
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Viktor Hovland wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:35:18Z
Reasoning: Winning the Valspar Championship does not require leading after Round 2 — a player can win a tournament without ever holding the outright lead at the R2 mark. And leading after R2 does not guarantee winning the tournament.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0200
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A