Pair #1725

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-VHOV

Valspar Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 1182

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-VHOV

Will Viktor Hovland win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 3572555

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:35:18Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters has no logical connection to finishing top 10 in round 1 of the Valspar Championship. These are entirely separate events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.8110
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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