Pair #1724

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-VHOV

Valspar Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7554

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.3000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-VHOV

Will Viktor Hovland win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 3572555

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:35:18Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters has no logical connection to finishing top 10 at the Valspar Championship. These are separate tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.7310
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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