Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-26-CGY
Will Calgary Flames win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: Calgary Flames
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 29520
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Calgary Flames win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLPLAYOFF-26-CGY
Will the Calgary Flames be one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers?
Series: KXNHLPLAYOFF
Entity: Calgary Flames
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 10632
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Calgary Flames are one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:02:51Z
Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup Finals requires having made the playoffs. So if Calgary wins the Cup, they must have been a playoff qualifier. The reverse does not hold.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-18.27%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0100
Days to maturity:
18
Hurdle yield:
4.19%
Excess yield:
-22.46%
BELOW HURDLE