Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-VHOV
Valspar Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 10 in the 1st round?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 1182
YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Viktor Hovland finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP5-VAC26-VHOV
Valspar Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4435
YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Viktor Hovland finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:35:18Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 5 overall in the tournament does not require finishing top 10 in round 1 (could start poorly and come back), and finishing top 10 in round 1 does not necessitate finishing top 5 overall. These are independent results across different scopes.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.9600
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A