Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP5-VAC26-VHOV
Valspar Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4435
YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Viktor Hovland finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-VAC26-VHOV
Valspar Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7554
YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.3000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Viktor Hovland finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:34:58Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 5 (including ties) necessarily means finishing top 10 (including ties), since top 5 is a subset of top 10. The reverse does not hold — could finish 6th–10th.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.1900
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A