Pair #1717

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-VHOV

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4121

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

Rules

If Viktor Hovland wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-VHOV

Valspar Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4435

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Viktor Hovland finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:34:58Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major tournament. A top-5 finish there has no logical bearing on winning a major, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -18.90% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1300
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -23.18% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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