Pair #1711

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-VHOV

Will Viktor Hovland lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 100493

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-VHOV

Valspar Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7554

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.3000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:34:58Z

Reasoning: Leading after R1 does not guarantee a top-10 finish (could fall well down the leaderboard). A top-10 finish does not require having led after R1. Neither direction is logically necessary.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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