Pair #1710

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-VHOV

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4121

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-VHOV

Will Viktor Hovland lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 100493

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:34:58Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major, so leading R1 there has no logical connection to winning a major. Neither direction holds.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -3.34% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -7.62% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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