Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-VHOV
Valspar Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 10 in the 1st round?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 1182
YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Viktor Hovland finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VAC26-VHOV
Valspar Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 21304
YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.5100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Viktor Hovland finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:34:36Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 20 overall does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1, and finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 overall finish. No logical implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.3100
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A